The Effects of Selected Macroeconomic Variables on Currency Substitution in Nigeria
Paul Obiora James Okino, Chinwe Regina Okoyeuzu, Ph.DCurrency substitution still remains a phenomena in many economies. It is the choice of local residents to desire foreign currency deposits above their national legal tenders. This is possible where the national currency fails to perform optimally to a great extent the traditional functions of medium of exchange, units of account and store of value. The increase in the choice by the local economic agents is attributed to suspected underlying economic factors arising from macroeconomic imbalances. The study set out to examine the effects of selected macroeconomic variables on currency substitution in Nigeria with the recognition of structural breaks within the study period of 1994 – 2022 (29 years). The researchers adopted the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model to execute the study interest with the addition of the pre and post estimation techniques to fine tune the distributional properties. The study found that inflation rate and official exchange rate volatility had inverse relationship with the currency substitution behaviour in the country within the reviewed period. Domestic interest rate and public external debt exerted positive but non-significant influence on currency substitution in the country. Personal (Diaspora) remittances exerted positive and significant influence on the behaviours of foreign currency deposits. Among others, the study recommended strong need for government to establish the Naira Monetary Unit or Currency Board in the economy to arm exchange rate management. Also, rebuild the trust and confidence in the political system and create an economy that works, in order to address the Jappa Syndrome.