Monetary Policy Shocks and West African Countries' Industrial Output Performance
Atsuwa Ruth Ngukimbin1 & AbdulkarimMusa 2Indicators of monetary policy that affect industrial production performance are analyzed in this study. A 40-year period from 1980 to 2019 was used, with a focus on 10 West African countries, to analyze the shock transmission mechanism between monetary policy indicators variables and industrial production performance in West African countries. Using descriptive statistics, correlation analysis, ADF unit root test, trend analysis, panel ARDL estimation, and panel VAR estimation, data from the World Bank Development Indicator database was examined. The analysis's findings indicate that while money supply trended primarily in the same direction as manufacturing sector output performance, real interest rates and monetary policy rates trended primarily in the opposite direction. Real interest rates in the service sector moved in the opposite direction of output performance from money supply and monetary policy rates, which typically moved in the same direction as output performance. Furthermore, the production of the manufacturing sector in a few West African countries is significantly impacted positively by the real interest rate and the interbank rate but negatively by the money supply and exchange rate. In the long run, both the money supply and the monetary policy rate have a major negative impact on the output performance of the service sector, whereas in the short term, only the monetary policy rate has a significant negative impact.This study comes to the conclusion, among other things, that monetary policy variables, particularly over the long run, have a more significant impact on the output performance of West Africa's manufacturing sector than they do on that of the service sector.