An Index of Relative State-Specific Fiscal Sustainability
1 D.K. Srivastava, 2 Murali krishna Bharadwaj, 3 Tarrung Kapur & 4 Ragini TrehanExisting literature on state specific sustainability analysis using econometric methods provide limited insights as to whether the fiscal deficit of a state is sustainable or not. It does not indicate how fiscally strong or weak is one state vis-à-vis. another from a sustainability perspective. We provide estimates for state specific sustainable levels of fiscal deficit relative to GSDP in relation to the all-state FRBM norm. We have developed indices for providing relative rankings to the states in terms of their relative magnitudes of sustainable fiscal deficit to GSDP levels, relativities of effective interest rate, revenue receipts to GSDP ratio, and nominal GSDP growth rates. Using these indices, we highlight the states that have shown a greater fiscal strength during the FC14 and FC15 (first three years) periods. We find that the small and hilly states have relatively higher state specific sustainable fiscal deficit to GSDP ratios primarily because of their higher revenue receipts to GSDP ratios which in turn depend on their relatively higher share in fiscal transfers. In the FC15 period, we have noted that the states showing relatively low sustainable levels of fiscal deficit to GSDP include Haryana, Punjab, Gujarat, Maharashtra, Kerala, Tamil Nadu and West Bengal.