Published Paper


Artificial Intelligence as a Tool for Forecasting the Effects of Foreign Debt Risk on Economic Growth in Nigeria

Dr. Ifeanyichukwu Arthur Onyiah; Dr. Enya, Francis Ejeje; Dr. Abani Chinenye Angela; Dr. Chinonso Karen Eke
NA
Page: 65-88
Published on: 2026 September

Abstract

Artificial Intelligence (AI) encompasses a broad spectrum of technologies that replicate human reasoning and decision-making processes. In Nigeria, foreign borrowing remains an important instrument for supporting economic growth but overdependence often creates sustainability concerns. This study explores how artificial intelligence can be a tool for forecasting the effects of foreign debt risk on economic growth in Nigeria. The study adopts an ex-post facto descriptive research design and relies on secondary time series data from 2006 to 2024, sourced from official publications of bulletins of Central Bank of Nigeria, Budget office of the Federation and Office of the Accountant General of the federation. Variables considered include foreign debt service payment, total foreign debt stock and exchange rate fluctuations as proxies for foreign debt risk with Gross Domestic Product (GDP) serving as the proxy for Economic Growth. Analytical methods combined conventional econometric models (simple and multiple regression analysis of ordinary least square technique and ANOVA) with AI- driven approaches (Neural Network). The study concludes that foreign debt when strategically managed, support growth while exchange rate volatility significantly heightens repayment pressures and undermines investment flows. The study recommends that economic policy through the Debt Management Office should prioritize prudent debt management and sustainable borrowing practices and stabilize exchange rates to safeguard long-term growth.

 

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